Mediterranean Weekly Report

The USG to Mediterranean lane extended its softening trend into Week 32, with rates declining across all parcel sizes in both the East and West Mediterranean basins. The move was uniform and meaningful: five-thousand-ton parcels fell eight dollars to $107 EMED and $99 WMED, ten-thousand-ton parcels dropped eight dollars to $98 EMED and $90 WMED, and twenty-thousand-ton parcels eased four dollars to $75 EMED and $69 WMED. The driver is consistent across both basins. An increase in open tonnage in the US Gulf, combined with new non-regular operators entering the trade, has expanded the effective supply pool with vessels carrying part-cargo space to the Mediterranean. These outsider ships, arriving with MEG and various chemical combinations, have been accumulating on the position list over several weeks and are now exerting clear downward pressure on prompt freight levels. Traders are actively seeking to capture remaining prompt space at current levels, a behavior that reflects awareness of near-term oversupply rather than any structural shift in demand. Forward cargo inquiries continue to price at a premium to prompt, reinforcing that dynamic. Bunker costs, which have been rising, may eventually provide a floor beneath rates, but any recovery will require the excess tonnage to be absorbed and the position list to tighten before owners can negotiate from a stronger footing.